PI: Dr. Jeremy Wilkinson
Scientist: Nick Hughes

This project has been accepted as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Announcement of Opportunity for the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008.  In addition the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) has agreed funding to host project meetings throughout the lifetime of the project.

Significant physical changes in the Arctic marine environment have occurred over the past few decades and accelerated change is predicted. These predicted changes are presaged by the changes presently occurring on the north east Greenland (NEG) continental shelf, which has seen a major decline in sea ice extent, as well as a recent increase in the rate of iceberg discharge and change in ocean structure. Within the shelf region of NEG the North East Water Polynya (NEW) forms each spring over the continental shelf. The International Arctic Polynya Project identified the NEW and surrounding region as one of the most important polynyas in the Arctic. The NEW generally opens in May/June, and gradually increases in size until it rapidly closes in September. It is hypothesised that the main reason for the formation of the NEW is the presence of a semi-permanent fast ice barrier, known as the Norske Øer Ice Barrier (NØIB). The complete break up of the NØIB is a rare event, which used to occur at intervals of about 50 years; however since 1997 the NØIB has disintegrated three times, in the summers of 2002, 2003 and 2004, releasing significant numbers of icebergs. An increase in the occurrence of icebergs in the East Greenland Current (EGC) will lead to a freshening of the Greenland and Labrador Seas, two important high-latitude components of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The latest analyses of satellite images show that sea ice extent in the NEW region has declined radically; in fact the NEG continental shelf region is almost ice free in summer. The NEW is becoming an open continental sea rather than a polynya. To this end one may ask the valid question - Is there still a NEW polynya or has it ceased to function as such?

Furthermore, can the region now be viewed as a shallow continental sea with a seasonal ice cover? This study is aimed at remotely monitoring a number of processes that lead to the formation of the NEW polynya and its possible evolution in to an open sea. Significant analysis of the inter-annual variability of ice concentration has already been performed (pre 1993) and therefore this study will concentrate on more recent events as well as designated images to be collected between 2007 and 2008 during IPY. The first area of interest is the evolution NEW polynya i.e. the total polynya area over a season, as well as the shape and length of the opening and closing periods. The second area of interest is the disintegration of the NØIB. As the NØIB is fringed by decreasing quantities of pack ice in summer it is exposed to increasing stress and flexure due to the propagation of ocean swell. It is hypothesised that the lack of ice cover seaward of the NØIB combined with storm-activity is contributing to the break-up of this ice barrier. In order to test this hypothesis it is proposed weekly wide-swath SAR images will obtained to determine when or if the NØIB breaks up during the IPY 2007 -2008. Together with this dataset our analysis will include ECMWF meteorological data for heat flux calculations, and the identification of major storm activity and open-ocean wave field from the WAM model. Furthermore the ESA historical SAR archive will be used to identify SAR images that relate to the 1997, 2002, 2003 and 2004 breakout events. Finally we will continue the rolling weekly SAR coverage of the region throughout the winter in order to monitor winter polynya activity in the region. At present it is unclear whether significant polynya activity occurs in the region in winter.

The project brings together scientists from SAMS, University of Cambridge - DAMTP, the Danish Center for Remote Sensing (DCRS), and the Alfred-Wegener Institute (AWI).